A Britain's Take On The West's Involvement In Syria's Civil War

Violence: Peter Hitchens says that arming the rebels against forces loyal to President Assad (pictured) is a recipe for starting a major war

We Set Syria Ablaze... Now We're Hurling In Explosives -- Peter Hitchens, Daily Mail

Imagine this: newspapers and broadcasters in China suddenly start to denounce the British Government.

They call it a ‘regime’. They say that its treatment of its Muslim minority is cruel and unjust.

Soon, their views are echoed by the Chinese foreign minister, who in a speech at the United Nations says that Britain’s treatment of its minorities is a disgrace, and calls for sanctions against this country.

The Chinese ambassador turns up as an ‘observer’ at an Islamist demonstration in Birmingham.

Some protesters are injured. Carefully-edited footage of the occasion is shown on global TV stations, in which the police are made to look brutal and the provocations against them are not shown.

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My Comment: I disagree with Peter Hitchens' analysis that we set Syria ablaze .... Syria was already ablaze, where we are at fault is that we have not helped the situation .... and neither has anyone else (i.e. Russia, Syria, Iran, etc.). But I do agree with Peter Hitchens' position that we should not arm the rebels .... our history for doing such things has proven to be dismal in the past decade, and I do not have any confidence that we have learned from our mistakes.

The Alawite Stronghold Of Syria

In The Hills of Alawistan -- Alia Malek, Foreign Policy

In Syria’s beautiful northwest, all is peaceful. But death is never far away.

TARTOUS, Syria — Above the Syrian coastal town of Tartous, groups of Alawite men and boys were amassing at different landings along a road that winds higher and higher, away from the Mediterranean and into the hills. We saw them assembling as we traveled the same path, taking advantage of a day off to get out of the city.

On this new spring Sunday, they were waiting for the corpses of Alawite soldiers -- conscripts in the Syrian Army -- to arrive from below. A funeral procession was building, one motorcycle at a time, one open-cabbed truck at a time, each laden with several passengers. The mothers and wives were recognizable in their black clothes with sheer white scarves draped around their necks, which have become public uniform once a family has been anointed with loss.

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My Comment: This region will probably be Bashar Assad's 'last stand'.

The Strain Of Civil War Is Breaking Syria Apart

Fighters from the Free Syrian Army. Khalil Ashawi/Reuters

Syria Begins to Break Apart Under Pressure From War -- New York Times

CAIRO — The black flag of jihad flies over much of northern Syria. In the center of the country, pro-government militias and Hezbollah fighters battle those who threaten their communities. In the northeast, the Kurds have effectively carved out an autonomous zone.

After more than two years of conflict, Syria is breaking up. A constellation of armed groups battling to advance their own agendas are effectively creating the outlines of separate armed fiefs. As the war expands in scope and brutality, its biggest casualty appears to be the integrity of the Syrian state.

On Thursday, President Obama met in Washington with the Turkish prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and once again pressed the idea of a top-down diplomatic solution. That approach depends on the rebels and the government agreeing to meet at a peace conference that was announced last week by the United States and Russia.

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My Comment: This is an excellent analysis from The New York Times. Key paragraph is the following ....

.... Three Syrias are emerging: one loyal to the government, to Iran and to Hezbollah; one dominated by Kurds with links to Kurdish separatists in Turkey and Iraq; and one with a Sunni majority that is heavily influenced by Islamists and jihadis.

Indeed.

Is Syria’s Bashar Al-Assad Winning?

Syria’s Bashar Al-Assad Is Winning -- Mike Giglio, Daily Beast

Obama isn’t jumping in, and neither is anyone else. Combine that with a string of military victories, and Assad is looking stronger than he has in months. Mike Giglio on the dictator’s next act.

Despite President Obama’s assertion on Thursday that he reserves “the options of taking additional steps, both diplomatic and military,” foreign intervention in Syria seems a distant prospect, and that, along with a string of military successes, has fueled the perception that president Bashar al-Assad now has the upper hand in his country’s bloody civil war. As Republican Sen. John McCain bluntly put it this week: "Right now, Bashar al-Assad is winning."

During the last few months, the Syrian military have retaken strategic areas across the country, reopening supply lines in the north and south while ramping up its offensive in the western city of Homs, a critical gateway between Damascus and the coast. Assad’s forces have also reinforced their strongholds in Damascus and elsewhere while weathering what rebels had billed as a major offensive in the capital.

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My Comment: Even if he wins .... which is hard to see from my vantage point .... it will be a fools victory with a devastated country splintered along sectarian lines. Think Somalia .... but in a far darker place.

Can Syria's Civil War Last 10 More Years?

Free Syrian Army fighters in the al-Ziyabiya area in Damascus. Photograph: Reuters

Why The Syrian War Could Last Ten Years -- Michael J. Totten, World Affairs

I wouldn’t be surprised if Bashar al-Assad falls sometime soon, but I also will not be surprised if the year 2020 rolls around and Syria has all but ceased to exist as a nation state and he’s still ruling fragments of the ex-country like a Somali-style warlord. Lebanon’s Levantine sectarian war lasted fifteen long years. That doesn’t mean Syria’s Levantine sectarian war will last as long, but it could.

Take a look at the new piece by Gary Brecher (the self-described War Nerd). His use of the Northern Ireland analogy is apt. I’ve used it myself to describe Lebanon’s war, and due to Lebanon’s lack of a sectarian majority, it’s the reason no one, not even Hezbollah, can ever win an offensive war in that country.

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My Comment: Michael Totten makes a very good case. Read it all.