Is Iraq Heading Toward Civil War?

Is Iraq Heading Toward Civil War? -- Keith Wagstaff, The Week

April was Iraq's bloodiest month in five years. And May isn't looking much better

Last Monday, at least 95 people died in a wave of attacks across Iraq. Two days before that, 76 people were killed in Sunni areas of Baghdad. And that followed a May 15 car bomb that kicked off a day of violence that resulted in 33 deaths.

The recent surge in violence has some experts warning of a return to 2006, when the country plunged into a sectarian conflict so brutal that it was often described as a civil war. What's behind the renewed violence?

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My Comment: What's my take .... I do not see a return to the violence of 2007 .... yet. But if the security forces are not able to stop this continuing cycle of bomb attacks and shootings .... even though many Iraqis are war weary .... the sectarian hatreds are still there and it will not take much to use this sentiment to start another civil war.

Is Iraq Spiralling Out Of Control?

Yes, Iraq Is Unraveling -- Michael Knights, Foreign Policy

And it's about to become Obama's problem all over again.

As American troops were pulling out of Iraq in 2010, the U.S. effort to stabilize the country resembled the task of an exhausted man who had just pushed a huge boulder up a steep hill. Momentum had been painstakingly built up and the crest approached. Was it safe to stop pushing and hope that the momentum would take the boulder over the top? Or would the boulder grind to a halt and then slowly, frighteningly roll back toward us?

Now we know -- and to be honest, the answer is hardly a surprise. Iraq is a basket case these days, and none of its problems came out of the blue. In the latest bout of sectarian and ethnic bloodletting, coordinated bomb attacks ripped through Shiite neighborhoods in Baghdad and also northern Iraq, killing more than 30 people. The spasm of violence followed clashes between the Iraqi army and Sunni protesters and insurgents last month, where the federal government temporarily lost control of some town centers and urban neighborhoods in Kirkuk, Nineveh, and Diyala provinces.

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My Comment: Yes .... Iraq is slowly unraveling along sectarian lines. If it is not the war in Syria spilling into Iraq, we have Baghdad itself helping to stoke these tensions. The trend is for more violence .... with a real possibility of approaching 2007-2008 conflict levels. And as for the role of the U.S. in (maybe) providing assistance to stop this slide .... for the moment I see zero interest (fortunately) in Washington and in the U.S. public to re-engage in Iraq.